The Cleveland Browns will soon embark on their 20th season since the city got a second chance at an NFL franchise. And in one very specific, very depressing way, the team is right back where it started. When we fire up our NFL Elo ratings for the new season in a couple of weeks — […]

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In the 2000 film Love & Basketball, teen protagonist Monica Wright, a tomboy whose family recently had moved to a Los Angeles suburb, meets her new neighbor, Quincy McCall, the son of a Los Angeles Clippers great, on the latter’s home basketball court. Decked out in a stereotypical male ensemble of a T-shirt, jeans and […]

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In the outskirts of San Pedro Sula, Honduras, decades of violence and economic dispossession have torn communities apart. Empty houses, stripped for valuable materials, lie in ruin after families fled from the threat of gang recruitment, economic insecurity and, often, the threat of death. Dany Pacheco, an evangelical pastor in the Planeta district of San […]

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Pitcher wins were already an unpopular metric among the sabermetric set, but Jacob deGrom’s 2018 season may have officially put the final nail in their coffin, even for traditionalists still hanging on to their old-school stats. DeGrom is currently leading the major leagues in ERA with a microscopic 1.81 mark in 159 innings. Yet, for […]

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Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. There are two types: Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and Riddler Classic for those of you in the slow-puzzle movement. Submit a correct answer for either,

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Democrats are favored to gain control of the House of Representatives in this year’s midterm elections, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast model. But — a very FiveThirtyEight-ish sentence follows — the range of possible outcomes is wide and Democrats’ prospects are far from certain. Relatively small shifts could allow Republicans to keep control of the […]

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You’re reading Significant Digits, a daily digest of the numbers tucked inside the news. 74.7 percent chance FiveThirtyEight launched its 2018 House forecast yesterday. According to our “Classic” model (there’s also “Lite” and “Deluxe”), as I write, Democrats are projected to pick up an average of 35 seats, giving them a roughly 3-in-4 chance to […]

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By Nate Silver and Galen Druke and Nate Silver and Galen Druke   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS | Embed Embed Code Our 2018 House forecast is now live! That also means that the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is resurrecting “Model Talk,” in which Nate Silver answers questions about what goes into the […]

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One of my favorite FiveThirtyEight concepts is the “tipping-point state,” first introduced by Nate more than 10 years ago. A tipping-point state is a literal swing state: the state that swings the result of a presidential election from one candidate to another. For example, if you put all 50 states in order by the margin […]

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